IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.8	#177
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	66.5	#244
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.2	#161

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.0	#201

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	9.5%	13.3%	7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.3	13.9	14.7

.500 or above	73.1%	86.3%	64.4%
.500 or above in Conference	70.5%	79.1%	64.8%
Conference Champion	11.5%	16.1%	8.5%
Last Place in Conference	2.4%	1.1%	3.2%

First Four	1.4%	1.5%	1.3%
First Round	8.9%	12.7%	6.4%
Second Round	1.2%	1.9%	0.8%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.6%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 39.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.6	0.0 - 0.6
Quad 1b	0.1 - 0.7	0.1 - 1.3
Quad 2	0.5 - 1.7	0.6 - 2.9
Quad 3	3.0 - 4.4	3.6 - 7.3
Quad 4	12.6 - 4.5	16.2 - 11.8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	173	@ Wyoming	L	75-76	40%
Nov 11, 2018	199	@ North Dakota St.	W	70-69	44%
Nov 17, 2018	251	Montana St.	W	76-72	75%
Nov 23, 2018	246	Portland St.	W	80-76	64%
Nov 24, 2018	262	Idaho	W	70-65	67%
Nov 29, 2018	257	Sacramento St.	W	71-66	75%
Dec 02, 2018	42	@ Washington	L	67-78	12%
Dec 08, 2018	332	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	75-64	88%
Dec 15, 2018	323	@ Rice	W	74-65	70%
Dec 19, 2018	253	@ Nebraska Omaha	W	77-73	55%
Dec 22, 2018	247	Idaho St.	W	74-70	73%
Dec 29, 2018	137	San Francisco	L	67-70	50%
Jan 09, 2019	317	Cal Poly	W	74-65	84%
Jan 12, 2019	282	UC Riverside	W	72-66	77%
Jan 17, 2019	131	@ UC Davis	L	67-70	30%
Jan 24, 2019	143	@ Cal St. Fullerton	L	71-73	33%
Jan 26, 2019	189	@ Long Beach St.	W	76-75	43%
Jan 31, 2019	90	UC Irvine	L	66-72	40%
Feb 02, 2019	201	@ Hawaii	W	70-68	45%
Feb 06, 2019	342	Cal St. Northridge	W	74-61	91%
Feb 09, 2019	131	UC Davis	L	67-70	50%
Feb 14, 2019	282	@ UC Riverside	W	72-66	59%
Feb 16, 2019	90	@ UC Irvine	L	66-72	22%
Feb 21, 2019	201	Hawaii	W	70-68	65%
Feb 23, 2019	143	Cal St. Fullerton	L	71-73	53%
Feb 28, 2019	189	Long Beach St.	W	76-75	61%
Mar 07, 2019	342	@ Cal St. Northridge	W	74-61	80%
Mar 09, 2019	317	@ Cal Poly	W	74-65	68%
Projected Record						16.2 - 11.8	9.0 - 7.0

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.1	0.7	2.5	3.4	2.9	1.4	0.5		11.5	1st
2nd									0.0	0.1	1.5	4.8	5.3	2.3	0.2				14.2	2nd
3rd								0.0	0.4	3.2	6.6	5.1	1.1	0.1					16.5	3rd
4th							0.0	0.7	3.9	7.3	4.1	0.8	0.0						16.8	4th
5th						0.1	0.7	4.2	6.2	3.2	0.5								14.9	5th
6th					0.1	1.4	4.2	4.6	2.0	0.3									12.6	6th
7th			0.0	0.2	1.3	3.4	2.4	0.8	0.1										8.2	7th
8th		0.0	0.3	1.1	1.7	0.9	0.3	0.0											4.3	8th
9th	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0													1.1	9th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.8	3.2	5.8	7.7	10.2	12.5	14.2	12.7	11.3	8.9	5.7	3.1	1.4	0.5			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5
15-1	100.0%	1.4		1.4	0.0
14-2	93.0%	2.9		2.3	0.6	0.0
13-3	59.1%	3.4		1.8	1.4	0.2
12-4	28.4%	2.5		0.7	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0
11-5	5.9%	0.7		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
10-6	0.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%	0.0			0.0				0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	11.5%	11.5		6.8	3.5	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.5%		69.1%	63.0%	6.2%	10.3				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.2		16.6%
15-1	1.4%		45.7%	45.2%	0.5%	12.3							0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0		0.8		0.9%
14-2	3.1%		40.5%	38.7%	1.8%	13.0									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	1.9		2.9%
13-3	5.7%		28.0%	28.0%	0.0%	13.8												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.1	4.1		0.0%
12-4	8.9%		18.1%	18.1%		14.4													0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.3	7.3
11-5	11.3%		12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	15.0														0.1	0.4	0.6	0.4	9.9		0.0%
10-6	12.7%		8.6%	8.6%		15.3														0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	11.6
9-7	14.2%		6.0%	6.0%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	13.3
8-8	12.5%		2.6%	2.6%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.3	12.2
7-9	10.2%		2.0%	2.0%		15.9																0.0	0.2	10.0
6-10	7.7%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	7.6
5-11	5.8%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	5.7
4-12	3.2%		0.4%	0.4%		15.0																0.0	0.0	3.2
3-13	1.8%																							1.8
2-14	0.6%																							0.6
1-15	0.2%																							0.2
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		9.5%	9.4%	0.1%	14.3				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	1.5	2.0	2.1	2.6	90.5		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	6.4			1.6		3.3	47.5	45.9		1.6